Betting on Underdogs
In sport, the term “underdog” refers to the outsider or assumed loser. Bookmakers will indicate the team or individual expected to lose by offering longer odds, and the team or individual most likely to win by offering shorter odds. The selection with the highest odds is always the underdog.
It is a statistical fact that most sports fans are habitually drawn to backing the winning team or player in any given event. Odds makers are fully aware of this natural inclination and take advantage by adjusting the odds on the favourite accordingly. As a result, there is often good value to be found by backing the underdog to win.
With evenly-matched sporting events, the difference between the odds on either side can be small. However, with unevenly-matched events, winning pay outs on one side can be much more substantial, making the underdog bet a tempting wager for many punters.
With handicap and spread betting, the bet can still win even if the underdog loses the events. For experienced bettors, this kind of bet can be very profitable. However, great skill is needed to fully understand how to take advantage of this type of betting.
Due to the commission rates built into bets by bookmakers, a strike rate of about 55%-60% is required to achieve a profit when betting of favourites in two-sided events over the course of a standard season. However, when betting on the underdog a strike rate of just 40-45% is needed. So, as you can see, it can pay to be able to spot the potential underdog winners.
The phrase “home dogs” referrers to weaker teams with a home field advantage, which are often undervalued by the odds makers. Often, home teams will have a good enough performance to cover the spread, even when the margins are high, and frequently win out right.
When a large score line is anticipated it can often be beneficial to back the underdog in the point spread market. Dominant teams will often do just enough to win and conserve their energy rather than racking up a huge score line. This can result in closer spread than expected.
There are many betting systems that have been created for the underdog markets but the most success can be gained through studying the current and historical data and statistics of the teams involved. All factors should be taken into account to determine whether there is an edge to be gained from backing the expected loser. For those good a spotting a future underdog winner, even high odds can be achieved by betting well in advance of an event.
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