Fibonacci Betting System
Betting systems can broadly be split into two categories: positive systems and negative systems. Positive betting systems operate by increasing the size of a bet with each win to maximise profits, while negative betting systems work by increasing the stake following a loss to recover shortfalls.
The Fibonacci system is a negative system based a mathematical sequence formed more than a thousand years ago. As a result, it can be placed in the same group as other betting strategies such as the Martingale, Labouchere and d`Alembert systems.
There is a school of thought that suggests the numerical series of integers that form the basis of the system may have been discovered by 6th century Indian mathematicians. But it was Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano Bigollo Fibonacci (1170~1250) who promoted the system and brought it to the wider attention of the Western world via his Book of Calculation.
Each number in the sequence is basically the sum of the two preceding numbers. So, if the series starts with 0 followed by 1, the sequence would continue with 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, and so on.
In the betting world, the Fibonacci system works in a similar way to the Labouchere Betting System by removing the numbers from a sequence after a win. The player will always bet the amount equal to the two most recent losses. The value of new losses are added to the sequence.
To ensure a profit, it is recommended that bets are placed on events with a probability of 2.618 or higher. Draws in football matches usually fall into this category.
If we use odds of 2.7 as our average odds threshold and start betting with a single unit our betting sequence would look this this:
- First bet = 1 (lost)
- Second bet = 1 (lost)
- Third bet = 2 (lost)
- Fourth bet = 3 (lost)
- Fifth bet = 5 (won)
Total staked = 12
Total return = 13.50 (at odds of 2.7)
Profit = 1.50
As soon as the punter wins, they go back to the start of the sequence, or if they have a large bankroll, they might go back two steps and start from the higher number in the sequence. This can be a useful way of disguising the fact that a progressive system is being used.
Much like other sequential systems, a run of poor results can result in a situation where a large bet is required to recoup your losses. However, the rate of increase is lower that in some systems, so that risk is reduced slightly. For example, if a punter starts with £1, after 14 straight losses, the 15th bet would requires a bank roll of £410. Whereas in the Martingale system the 15th bet would require a bankroll of £8192. However, the Martingale system is designed for bets at odds of 2.00 or Evens, while the Fibonacci system works best at odds of 2.618 or higher. This increases the chance of a winless streak.
